SPY Market Regime Framework
Analyst44 classifies SPY price behavior into stable market “regimes” — designed to describe structure and environment, not short-term signals. The goal is to answer: “What type of market are we trading in right now?”
Who analyzes this?
The classification is produced by an AI market structure analyst trained to read SPY price behavior,
using the latest daily bars from spy_daily_bars and the last stored regime decision from
spy_market_state_history.
The model prioritizes regime stability and avoids unnecessary day-to-day changes.
- Input A: recent SPY daily OHLC bars (trend, slope, range, follow-through).
- Input B: previous stored regime decision (to prevent flip-flopping).
- Output: market regime label + strength (0–100) + short explanation.
Why SPY regimes matter
SPY regimes are not about predicting the next candle — they describe the structural environment of the market. Understanding the regime helps align execution with conditions:
Some regimes reward continuation; others punish late entries and favor fades.
Choppy or unstable regimes increase slippage and false signals.
Structural stress often requires smaller sizing and wider tolerance.
Transitional regimes demand confirmation and patience.
Regime stability rule (to avoid daily flips)
Analyst44 treats SPY regimes as environment states, not a daily label. The AI keeps the previous regime unless there is clear evidence of a structural change.
- Stay consistent if recent price action represents noise.
- Switch regime only when multiple sessions confirm a new structure.
- Use “Transition / Unstable” when signals conflict or confirmation is missing.
The 7 SPY market states (Analyst44 standard)
These regimes are designed to remain readable, stable, and execution-focused across time.
1) Strong Uptrend
MomentumPrice structure is clean, higher highs and higher lows persist, and pullbacks tend to resolve upward.
- Typical feel: smooth continuation.
- Risk note: late entries still vulnerable.
- Execution: trend-following favored.
2) Weak Uptrend
FragileUpward bias exists, but follow-through weakens and failures increase.
- Typical feel: choppier continuation.
- Risk note: momentum fades quickly.
- Execution: selective longs only.
3) Range / Neutral
BalancedDirectional edge is limited; mean reversion dominates.
- Typical feel: back-and-forth sessions.
- Risk note: breakout traps common.
- Execution: fade extremes, reduce size.
4) Weak Downtrend
PressureDownward pressure exists but lacks aggressive follow-through.
- Typical feel: slow grind lower.
- Risk note: sharp counter-moves possible.
- Execution: selective shorts.
5) Strong Downtrend
Risk-OffPersistent selling pressure with failed bounces and expanding volatility.
- Typical feel: fast selloffs.
- Risk note: violent short-covering rallies.
- Execution: defensive positioning.
6) Post-Trend Stabilization
ResetPrice volatility compresses after a directional phase.
- Typical feel: slowing momentum.
- Risk note: false starts common.
- Execution: patience required.
7) Transition / Unstable
MixedConflicting structure signals without confirmation.
- Typical feel: inconsistent sessions.
- Risk note: highest strategy mismatch risk.
- Execution: wait for clarity.
How to read “Decision Strength” (0–100)
Low confidence or transition state.
Moderate confidence. Structure forming.
High confidence. Clear market structure.
Important note
SPY regimes are context tools, not predictions. Analyst44 uses them to reduce noise, improve discipline, and align execution with market structure.